White House Says Reports of an American Cyberwar With Russia Are Greatly Exaggerated

Meanwhile, Ken Dilanian, one of the NBC reporters behind the story, was quick to defend its accuracy:

Again, the notion that the White House would be, at minimum, considering retaliative measures makes sense. Chair of the U.S. Senate Intelligence Committee Sen. Mark Warner said in an interview Thursday that, under the current circumstances, America could certainly be forced to launch digital attacks. According to Warner, such a response would likely be triggered if Russia cyberattacked the U.S. or one of its allies, or if an attack on Ukraine were to spin out of control and affect regional NATO partners.

But if the likelihood of a digital engagement between Russia and the West is high, so are the risks involved. Russia has a number of formidable and well-known cyberweapons at its disposal that could royally screw with us. The Russian military hacking group “Sandworm” is known for its ability to carry out complex cyberattacks such as the 2015 attack on Ukraine that temporarily brought down parts of the nation’s power grid. On top of this, Russia is home to a thriving cybercriminal underworld—the likes of which is alleged to enjoy unofficial ties to the Russian government. Cybersecurity expert Dmitri Alperovitch told Axios Thursday that Putin could respond to U.S. sanctions by giving Russian ransomware gangs “carte blanche” to attack Western targets, effectively deputizing them as digital paramilitaries in a noxious retaliation campaign.

Of course, all of this is purely speculative, though the fluid nature of the situation in Ukraine means that a lot is possible right now. Pretty much nothing is off the table. And, of course, the biggest risk of a digital incursion is that it could ultimately lead to other kinds of military engagement. Conflict analysts have long warned that cyberwar could swiftly lead to more catastrophic conflict, i.e., you know, nukes and stuff. So, not for nothing but I hope the Pentagon’s cyberwarfare planners do try to remember that, in addition to robust digital capabilities, Russia certainly has a helluva a lot of nukes.