“This year, we hopefully will be able to make about 5,000 Optimus robots,” said Musk. “That’s the size of a Roman legion. Which is like a scary thought. Like a whole legion of robots, I’ll be like, ‘whoa.’”
Musk’s exuberance continued as he claimed Tesla would make “probably 50,000-ish [Optimus robots] next year.” He further claimed that Optimus “will be the biggest product of all time by far—nothing will even be close. It’ll be ten times bigger than the next biggest product ever made. Ultimately, I think we’ll be making tens of millions of robots a year.” Seconds later, he upped the ante even further, stating that, no, Tesla would actually make “maybe 100 million robots a year.”
Grandiose predictions excite Tesla bulls who believe him when Musk says, “I know more about manufacturing than anyone currently alive on Earth,” but back in the real world Musk is in charge of a car manufacturing company that can’t even spec the correct grade of panel glue.
Now on its eighth recall in the past 14 months—prior recalls involved failing windshield wipers, trapped accelerator pedals, and possible loss of power to the wheels—Musk’s polarizing polygonic pickups are in sales freefall. Month-over-month Cybertruck sales were down by 32.5 percent in February, according to estimates by Cox Automotive.
“The Cybertruck generated significant buzz with its unique design and ambitious specifications,” says Cox’s Streaty. “However, sales have fallen short of expectations due to higher than promised prices, lower driving range and payload capacity, and production issues. The unconventional design hasn’t resonated with traditional truck buyers, and strong competition from Rivian and Ford has intensified the market.”
The Cybertruck, she adds, is a “niche product with a unique design and high price point, which may not resonate with mainstream consumers. Additionally, recalls and quality concerns can significantly undermine customer confidence and sales, posing a substantial challenge for the Cybertruck’s market success.”
When unveiled in 2019, Musk promised the production vehicle would launch within two years, starting with a $39,900 model. At the actual launch in 2023, the base model cost $21,000 more than that. The Foundation Series model—an early-doors special—cost an additional $20,000 despite offering no physical differences other than a look-at-me logo. Non-physical perks included lifetime cellular connectivity and “free” access to Tesla’s Full Self-Driving (Supervised) system.
Forbes Forbes spoke with experts who estimate that Tesla sunk at least $2 billion into the development of the Cybertruck. A traditional car might need 200,000 units per year to cover the research and development costs, Olav Sorenson, professor of strategy and sociology at UCLA and faculty director of its Price Center for Entrepreneurship & Innovation has estimated.
Sorenson calculates that the Cybertruck, with its stainless steel body panels and unconventional construction might require as many as 300,000 sales per year.
At current levels of Cybertruck sales Tesla “probably loses money on every one,” claims Sorenson. “It’s an innovative vehicle, but whether such an unusual design would appeal to consumers has always been a gamble. The DeLorean, the original stainless steel car, only sold about 9,000 units. Even more mainstream cars with unusual designs, such as the PT-Cruiser, have struggled to reach profitable sales levels.”
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