Going into this week, the polls are more or less tied in the key swing states, and it’s fair to say the election remains a tossup. Still, it’s also fair to say that there are real reasons to look at Donald Trump’s chances a bit skeptically.
First, while the topline results of polls are close, there’s a growing body of evidence showing that late deciders are breaking heavily for Kamala Harris. Second, results from Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, widely regarded as the best in the industry, show overwhelming margins for the Democrats among senior and independent women, which if approached in the key Rust Belt states which share some demographic overlap with the Hawkeye State would make a Trump victory very difficult. Finally, as WIRED and others like The Guardian and NBC have reported in detail, Trump’s turnout operation, which has largely been outsourced to Elon Musk, appears to be a bit of a disaster.
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